Group play at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is nearing its end, and there weren’t many surprises as we head toward the knockout stage. But does that mean the favorites entering the tournament should remain the favorites ahead of the knockout stage?
That’s what “First Things First’s” Nick Wright believes. As we’re nearly complete with Match Day 3 at the World Cup, Wright dished out percentages on the teams most likely to win the tournament.
Here’s who he has as the favorites, and who he might view as sneaky underdogs.Â
Sweden
Ivory Coast
Senegal
Ghana
Croatia
EgyptÂ
Canada
Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t like how they’ve looked at all. And then, all of a sudden, because of Senegal winning by margin and the other third-place game situations. It’s not that they have to tie New Zealand tonight, they’ve got to win against New Zealand tonight or they’re going home, I believe.”
Wright’s thoughts: “They won their group. They stole Canada’s path. They now get to stay in Vancouver through the round of 16. It was the easiest group, but they’ve looked good.”
Wright’s thoughts: “A team that’s looked better than 2%, but I hate their draw for them. I know Ian Darke said [Japan likes having a tough path], but I disagree. They play Brazil now in the round of 32. So, their World Cup’s about to end. But they’ve played well.”
Wright’s thoughts: “If we did this pie on Sunday morning, it could be very different. Can they beat Portugal? What can they do as far as winning the group on Saturday? If they don’t, then, all of a sudden, they’re probably playing Spain in the first round of this tournament and they’re probably done.”
Wright’s thoughts: “Netherlands the moment the draw came out had to feel like, Well, this isnt right. What’s our goal? Win our group. Oh, sweet. What happens if we win our group? Our first game is either against Morocco or Brazil. They won their group and their first game is against Morocco. They absolutely can win that game. It’s just that could be a quarterfinal game and instead, it’s a round of 32 game.”
Wright’s thoughts: “Perfect’s perfect: Six goals scored, zero goals allowed [in group play]. They get to stay in Mexico until potentially the quarterfinals, and it sets up a potentially unbelievable round of 16 game.”
Wright’s thoughts: “Norway goes down to 4%. Norway, I’m not mad. I’m disappointed. I’m disappointed that you were undefeated playing the favorite [in France] and decided you were fine with playing for second place. It’s just disappointing. I like Erling Haaland.”
Wright’s thoughts: “Listen, they’ve been excellent. Their percentage, much like the Netherlands, is hampered by the fact that their round of 32 game is brutal, playing the Netherlands. If they get through that game, however, then they get the winner of Canada-South Africa and then, all of a sudden, France [in the quarterfinals]. That was the semifinals in the last World Cup. That could be the quarterfinals here.”
Wright’s thoughts: “It’s up because the last time I did this, they had only played one game. Christian Pulisic is back and healthy. They have no yellow card suspensions to worry about. And, they are the only team in the tournament that’s path to the quarters might not involve ever playing a top-20 team [if Belgium loses in the round of 32].”
Wright’s thoughts: “If they take care of business against Colombia and win that game and the group, you can settle yourselves. If they don’t, then I think it was not so much that Game 1 was the aberration and Game 2 was them returning to form. Rather, Game 1 m
